How to generate a second income from gambling

My title is Sports Editor on a sports news and gambling website. I have many years of experience of sports journalism, betting on sports, as well as studying mathematics. Do I have the qualifications of a gambling expert? Well, I guess you could argue that.

There are a myriad of gambling experts that will give out the details of their strategies to beat the bookie or generate a second income from gambling, but for a price of course. I will not do that. I’ll only give you information about bookmakers, odds and gambling for you to utilize (or ignore) however you like.

The first thing to note is that the vast majority of gamblers who participate in betting will be net losers in the end. This is why that bookmakers are making so much money throughout the world.

Although bookmakers may suffer big losses, for instance , if a favorite winner of the Grand National, they spread their risk to the maximum extent and they establish markets that have margins, to ensure they make a profit over the long-term to medium period, if not even the immediate term. This is as long as they got their numbers right.

In determining their odds for any particular event, bookmakers must first assess the odds of it occurring. For this purpose, they employ various statistical models , based on data accumulated over years often decades, on the sport and team/competitor the contest. Of course, if sport was completely predictable it would cease to be appealing, and while the bookies are often correct in their estimations of the likelihood of an event, they’re sometimes far off just because a game or competition is not in line with traditional wisdom and statistical odds.

Take a look at any sport and you will find occasions when the underdog prevails in the face of all odds literally. Wimbledon beating the then powerful Liverpool during the FA Cup Final of 1988, for instance or the USA winning against the formidable USSR at ice hockey during the 1980 Olympics are two examples of where you could have gotten excellent odds against the underdog. Also, you could have scored an impressive wedge.

The biggest bookmakers invest much of their time and money making sure they have the right odds to take into account the perceived likelihood of the event and then, if they are successful, add that small amount to give them an income margin. For instance, if an event has a probability of, say 1/3 the odds to reflect this probability would be 2/1. It’s two-to-one odds against the happening.

However, a bookmaker who sets these odds could, over time, be able to break even (assuming their stats are correct). So instead they would place the odds at, for example 6/4. So, they’ve constructed a margin that ensures, over time, they will profit from people betting on this selection. The same principle applies like a roulette game in a casino.

So how can you tell those instances when bookmakers not done their job correctly? Well, it’s a lot easier said than done, but very much doable.

Another option is to get extremely proficient at mathematical modelling and then create an understanding that takes all the factors that influence the outcomes of an event as you can. The issue with this approach is that no matter how complex the model, and however comprehensive it may appear but it will never be able to be able to account for the nuances of factors that impact individuals’ mental states. If a golfer is able to hole a major-winning five foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews it is as dependent on their mental focus as to the weather or day or week. Additionally, the maths could start getting pretty darn complicated.

There is also the possibility of finding an interest in sports. Bookmakers are able to concentrate their funds on the events that make them the most money. This is usually football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So attempting to beat bookmakers when you bet on the outcome of a Manchester United v Chelsea match will be tough. If you are not employed by some of the teams or are married to one of the players or managers there is a good chance that betting on the bookmaker that has more information than you.

But, if you’re wagering on Non-league Football or badminton, or crown green bowls, it’s possible with hard work, reading tons of statistics as well as general information gathering, you can start to gain an edge over bookies (if they do have odds on these games (which a lot of bookies do).

What should you do when you’ve got an advantage in terms of information? You must follow the rules.

Value betting is when you take a gamble with odds that are higher than the actual probability of an event occurring. For example, if you calculate the odds of a certain non-league football team (Grimsby Town, for instance) having a chance to win their next game as 1/3 or 33%, and you find a bookmaker who has set odds of 3/1, you’ve got a bet of value on your hands. The reason being, chances of 3/1 (excluding the margin imposed by the bookie) provide a probability of 1/4 or 25%. The bookie, in your now expert opinion, has overrated Grimsby’s chances. Therefore, you’ve effectively created an 8 percent margin for yourself.

Of course, Grimsby (as usually the case) could blunder their lines and lose the game. In this case, it could result in losing the bet. But if you continue to seek out and bet on the value bets, over time, you’ll make some money. If you do not then, over time you’ll lose. Simple.